In today’s fast-paced retail environment, staying ahead of quickly shifting consumer demand is critical yet increasingly difficult. Sales can be made or broken based on the quality of planning both before and during the selling season. Here we explore some of the best practices retailers should employ for pre-season and in-season planning to drive sales, minimize inventory risk, and delight customers.
Laying the Pre-Season Groundwork
Pre-season planning may occur up to six months to a year ahead of the actual selling period. It establishes the framework for the season by determining which products will be carried and in what quantities across stores.
Perform Historical Analysis – Analyze previous years’ sales trends, best and worst sellers, and major demand drivers across categories, products, regions, and channels. Identify what sold well and why. Look for emerging themes or consistent behaviors over time.
Know Your Consumer – Dig into consumer research and sentiment data to spot trends in preferences, price sensitivity, demographics, brand affinity and other demand signals. Integrate insights across age groups, regions, gender, etc.
Mine Social Sentiment – Leverage social listening tools to identify rising trends, product mentions, and consumer sentiment. Analyze reviews and conversations across social platforms.
Incorporate Macro Trends – Stay on top of broader economic, geopolitical, environmental and technological shifts that may impact demand. Consider how trends like inflation or supply chain issues could flow down to product demand.
Model Multiple Scenarios – Create upside, downside and base case modeling scenarios. Estimate ranges for demand, supply, pricing, and KPIs under each scenario. Stress test plans accordingly.
Collaborate Cross-Functionally – Bring together teams across merchandising, planning, supply chain, finance and marketing to align around season strategies, calendar, product mix and volume.
Leave Buffer Room – Plan conservatively with room for upside, as it”s’s sometimes easier to add inventory than to mark it down later. Build in flexibility for chasing demand as needed.
Once pre-season plans are established, the next step is determining order plans and purchase quantities. Strategic decisions made now can dictate profitability for the entire season.
Strategic In-Season Planning
As the selling season kicks off, in-season planning becomes critical to leverage early reads for upside potential while swiftly reacting to any misses. Here are tips for optimizing in-season planning:
Start With a Roadmap – Create an in-season calendar detailing key dates for meetings, milestones, events, promotions, launches, and adjustments. Outline stakeholders and planning cycles.
Analyze Early Selling – Dissect early sales and consumer engagement data to identify hot performers, slower movers, and initial demand trends. Drill down regionally and across channels.
Employ Chase Strategies – Have chase inventory and capacity reserved to quickly capitalize on winning products and faster-selling sizes/colors. Designate strategic points for activating chase replenishment.
Monitor Trends Closely – Stay highly attuned to micro and macro trends that emerge once selling begins. Watch social metrics, search data, ratings, reviews, and competitor actions.
Conduct Sentiment Analysis – Run frequent social listening studies and consumer surveys to identify rising needs, product feedback, merchandising opportunities, and pain points.
Make Small Corrections – Avoid dramatic overcorrections. Make minor, calculated adjustments to buy quantities, promotions, fulfillment tactics, and future orders based on latest data.
Review KPIs Frequently – Keep close tabs on sales, margin, inventory and other KPIs against goals. Drill down into drivers, profitability and performance by product attributes, locality and channel.
Communicate Cross-Functionally – Keep product teams, stores, supply chain and leadership aligned on performance to date, evolving strategies and operational needs through consistent meetings and data sharing.
Provide Updated Forecasts – Furnish updated sales, margin, and inventory forecasts to internal teams and external partners to align activities to latest expectations.
Leverage Analytics – AI retail merchandising software like OmniThink.AI can rapidly synthesize sales, inventory, competitive, search, social and other data to unlock deeper insights and opportunities.
Chase Strategies for Capitalizing on Hot Trends
Chase strategies represent one of the most valuable tools retailers have for capitalizing on excess demand for winning and trending products during the season. Here are tips for optimizing chase replenishment:
Model Upside Scenarios – Use pre-season scenario planning to project possible windows and quantities for chase inventory if products hit sales thresholds.
Reserve Safety Stock – Allocate a portion of inventory and production/sourcing capacity specifically for chasing that can be released quickly.
Stage Strategically – Forward stage chase inventory as close to demand as possible, whether in nearby facilities or even upstream in the supply chain.
Monitor Leading Indicators – Watch for early social buzz, search spikes, positive reviews and increased conversion that can indicate breakout products.
Pull Only What You Need – Limit initial chase quantities to identified hot spots based on localized data, preserving upside potential. Avoid over-chasing globally.
Know When to Stop – Be disciplined with chase purchase limits and end dates to prevent over-buying and clearance risk. Chase to fill immediate demand gaps, not open-ended upside.
Prioritize Profitability – Ensure chased products have attractive margins to drive profitable incremental sales, not just revenue.
Move Fast – Speed is critical with chasing trends. Make the call early, produce/source rapidly, and fulfill quickly before demand shifts elsewhere.
Communicate Needs – Keep sourcing, logistics, stores and internal partners aligned on chase plans and equipped to execute replenishment swiftly.
Review Effectiveness – Conduct post-season analysis detailing chase quantities, costs, sales, and profitability to improve future strategies.
With the right pre-season groundwork, vigilant in-season monitoring, strategic chase tactics and cross-functional execution, retailers can turn uncertain and complex consumer demand into a winning strategy. Planning is everything in retail; follow these best practices to plan both smart and responsive. The consumer waits for no one – will you have the right products, prices, quantities and locations when trends emerge? Get planning ahead to find out.
